MVP vs. Longzhu Gaming
Week 6 of the 2016 LCK Summer Spring Split starts on Monday the 27th of June at 9pm local time. Featuring MVP, Jin Air, Afreeca Freecs, SKTelecomT1, CJ Entus & Longzhu.
As we are now hovering over the halfway mark of the 2016 Summer split, lower standing teams could not be under more pressure to outperform, escape relegation and slip into play-offs. MVP and Longzhu are both lower-middle tier teams with imperfect and at times questionable gameplay.
As far as line-ups are concerned, Longzhu have a lot of mechanical talent and play making potential. In terms of the early game, say, pre-15 minutes, Longzhu is generally one of the better performing teams and definitely up there with teams like ROX and KT. Chaser is able to put decent map pressure on the table and the team cohesively groups together in an attempt to create an early lead. At the same time, the new top lane carry meta has shifted favourably into Expression’s hands, as he is more than happy to take upon the role as a carry rather than a tank.
While Longzhu starts the game off strong, with sizeable gold leads and dragon control, they are by far the worst team at ending the game. This is exactly why they are 8th place with a 2W-6L record.
Conversely, MVP struggle to get the ball moving in the early game, falling behind in team gold and dragon control pre-15 minutes.
Overall, Longzhu should be able grab an early lead in the best of three and use their extended gold lead and the utility of dragons to snowball a 2-0 victory over a team that struggles in the early game.
Prediction: MVP 45% | Longzhu 55% (Longzhu 2-0 victory)
KT Rolster vs. Jin Air Green Wings
At the top of the LCK standings boasts some of the most consistent teams in the world. A victory here would either level Jin Air with KT in second place or push KT up to equal first.
We are seeing heightened aggression coming out of top tier team from every region in the world from EU’s G2, NA’s TSM and Koreas ROX and KT; they demonstrate clean cut shot calling to make aggressive plays early and push that advantage.
KT is a very proactive team. Score plays a huge part in making risky tower dives and rotations in the early game. For the most part, they come out on top, creating sizeable gold leads as well as grabbing dragon pre-15 minutes. Unlike Longzhu who struggle to close out games with their leads, KT proficiently snowball leads into easy victories.
Jin Air on the other hand are much more methodical and prefer the game played at a slower, more passive aggressive pace. This is why they have trouble against top tier teams and their aggression.
Overall, KT is without a doubt favourites to win this match. With the meta coming back to Ssumday’s preferred top lane carry style and dragons becoming ever so important, KT should be able to outclass Jin Air in this best of three.
Prediction KT Rolster 55% | Jin Air 45% (2-0 KT victory)
Afreeca Freecs vs. MVP
I had a good think about this match-up and in all honestly, it is neck and neck. These are two teams that are easily outclassed by top tier teams but remind us why they are playing at the highest level when vsing their counterparts.
Afreeca should have a strong early game than MVP. The should pick scaling ADCs like Caitlyn, Sivir and Lucian as Sangyoon does a large proportion of his team’s damage and is the backbone to any AFS victory.
The mismanagement of an early dive against ROX in week 5 demonstrates that Afreeca need to make decisive calls and measure their risk when making proactive plays. Should they make more clear cut calls, they should be able to have an edge on MVP.
This is going to be very close. However I feel like Afreeca have a slight edge against the rookies.
Prediction: Afreeca Freecs 50% | MVP 50% (2-1 Afreeca victory)
SKTelecom T1 vs. ESC Ever
Surprisingly, in the 2016 Kespa Cup, ESC Ever took first place beating Samsung, CJ Entus and SKT. The reality is that it will never happen again.
As a rookie team playing against the best teams in the world, ESC are weaker in decision-making and macro play. They have the tendency to overstay their welcome during early game rotations and force questionable fights that further set them behind. To bring these flaws against a match with SKT is suicide.
SKT is the best team in the world; boasting first place in their early game (calculated through pre-15 minute gold leads/dragon control) and mid/late game rating. They play well regardless of what position they are in, whether that is a 10k gold lead or a 10k gold deficit. Duke, Faker and Bang all play with confidence and able to pop off and carry the entire team.
Overall ESC should get smack daddied back to the challenger scene.
Prediction: SKT 70% | ESC Ever 30% (2-0 SKT Victory)